After Al Assad’s fall, Erdogan enjoys ‘moment in the sun’: Analysts

Erdogan was jubilant as the rebels stormed Damascus, and just days later, his spy chief Ibrahim Kalin became the first high-profile figure to visit HTS leader Abu Mohammed Al Jolani, who now goes by his real name Ahmed al-Sharaa.

The same week, Erdogan scored another diplomatic coup by brokering the end of a bitter year-long dispute between Ethiopia and Somalia.

In another boost for Erdogan’s international standing, Turkey’s role in Syria won praise on Monday from president-elect Donald Trump.

“Right now, Syria has a lot of indefinites. Nobody knows what’s going to happen. I think Turkey is going to hold the key to Syria,” he told reporters.

“Turkey did an unfriendly takeover, without a lot of lives being lost,” said billionaire businessman, describing Erdogan as “a very smart guy and very tough” and “somebody I got along with great”.

“The people that went in (to Syria) are controlled by Turkey and that’s ok.”

‘Maximising Turkey’s leverage’

Anthony Skinner, director of research at Marlow Global, told AFP that “Erdogan has played the long game from a power projection and security perspective.”

His government “has carefully cultivated relations with both state and non-state actors to maximise Turkey’s leverage in its back yard and further afield,” he said.

“The returns are particularly apparent in Syria and the Horn of Africa. Erdogan has played his cards well until now and he holds an enviable hand in Syria.”

Erdogan has also offered to step in to resolve a dispute between Khartoum and Abu Dhabi over the brutal conflict gripping Sudan that has left tens of thousands dead.

For Max Abrahms, an international security professor and author of a book on terror group dynamics, “Erdogan has been a big winner” of the Syrian upheaval.

With Assad’s long-term backers now out of the picture – Russia mired in its war with Ukraine and Iran weakened by Israel’s assault on its Hezbollah proxy – the stage has been cleared for Erdogan to “expand Turkish influence in Syria”, he told AFP.

Ankara confident

That will likely see Ankara moving to “mitigate the PKK threat as Turkey consolidates control along its border”, he said.

Since 2016, Turkey has staged multiple operations in northern Syria, mainly targeting Syrian Kurdish group YPG, which is a key part of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

Ankara considers the YPG to be linked to the PKK, its domestic nemesis which has fought a decades-long insurgency on Turkish soil.

Just days after Al Assad’s fall, Ankara appeared confident its HTS allies ruling Syria would oppose Kurdish militants.

“In this new period, the PKK/YPG terrorist organisation will be eliminated in Syria. Both we and the new administration in Syria want this,” Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Friday.

In addition, a decision by the incoming Trump administration to withdraw US troops from Syria would weaken the SDF “to the delight of Erdogan”, Abrahms said.

Refugee reliefThe Syria transition also unlocks another key concern for Ankara – the fate of nearly three million refugees who found refuge in Turkey but whose presence has stoked increasing domestic tensions.

Assad’s ouster now “paves the way for the return of refugees resident in Turkey and enhanced influence for Ankara,” said Hamish Kinnear, senior analyst at Verisk Maplecroft.

“Turkey is in theory well-placed to mediate between Ukraine and Russia, given its ability to speak to both Kyiv and Moscow,” he told AFP.

Erdogan has carefully maintained ties and dialogue with both sides since the war began in February 2022, shying away from Western sanctions on Moscow while supplying Ukraine with drones.

“It is undoubtedly Erdogan’s moment in the sun,” said Kinnear.