What led to the fall of Syria’s Bashar Al Assad?

Islamist rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani’s “work on building up institutions and centralising much of the rebellion under his own control is also a big part of the story”, he added.

Syria’s grinding civil war began with a crackdown on anti-government protests in 2011. The front lines had remained largely unchanged for the past four years, until the rebels launched their massive offensive.

AFP looks at some of the reasons behind Al Assad’s sudden demise.

Army hollowed out

Al Assad’s army is little more than a hollow shell amid a war that has killed more than half a million people and devastated the country’s economy, infrastructure and industry.

In the war’s early years, experts said a combination of casualties, defections and draft-dodging saw the military lose around half of its 300,000-strong force.

According to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor, the army put up little significant resistance in some areas after the rebels launched their offensive on November 27.

It reported soldiers repeatedly evacuating positions across the country.

“Since 2011, Syria’s army has faced attrition in manpower, equipment and morale,” said David Rigoulet-Roze of the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs.

Underpaid soldiers had reportedly looted resources to survive, and many young men have evaded conscription, he told AFP.

On Wednesday, Al Assad ordered a 50 per cent raise in career soldiers’ pay, but with Syria’s economy in tatters, soldiers’ salaries are almost worthless.

The army has not officially commented since Damascus fell to the rebels.

Abandoned by allies

Al Assad has heavily relied on military, political and diplomatic support from key allies Russia and Iran.

With their help, he had clawed back territory lost after the conflict erupted in 2011 with the repression of anti-government protests, and Russia’s 2015 intervention with air power changed the tide of the war in Al Assad’s favour.

But last month’s rebel offensive came as Russia remains mired in its war in Ukraine, and its air strikes this time failed to hold back the Islamist-led rebels who swept up swathes of territory including major cities Aleppo, Hama, Homs and finally Damascus.

Al Assad’s other key ally Iran has long provided military advisers to Syria’s armed forces and supported pro-government armed groups on the ground.

But Iran and its allied groups have suffered setbacks in fighting with Israel since the Gaza war erupted and hostilities ensued between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah in neighbouring Lebanon.

Nick Heras, an analyst at the New Lines Institute, told AFP before rebels took Damascus that “ultimately, the Assad government’s ability to survive will depend on the extent to which Iran and Russia see Assad as useful to their strategies in the region”.

“If either or both of those allies decide they can advance their interests without Assad, then his days in power are numbered,” he added.

Hezbollah weakened

Lebanese militant group Hezbollah has openly backed Damascus on the ground since 2013, sending thousands of fighters across the border to bolster the army.

But the rebels launched their offensive last month on the same day that a ceasefire went into effect between Israel and Hezbollah, after more than a year of hostilities in Lebanon.

Hezbollah shifted many of its fighters from Syria to south Lebanon to face off with Israel, weakening its presence in the neighbouring country.

A source close to Hezbollah had told AFP that hundreds of the group’s fighters had been killed in the conflict with Israel, without providing a precise figure.

The fighting also decimated Hezbollah’s leadership, with the group’s longtime chief Hassan Nasrallah, his presumed successor and a string of senior commanders killed in Israeli air strikes.

On Sunday, another source close to Hezbollah said the group was pulling its forces from the outskirts of the capital and the Homs area near the border.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Al Assad’s overthrow was “a direct result of the blows we have inflicted on Iran and Hezbollah, Assad’s main supporters”.