What next after killing of Hamas chief Haniyeh?

Who will succeed Haniyeh?

After the overnight strike in the Iranian capital that Hamas has blamed on Israel, two names have been floated around to replace Haniyeh.

Neither are his deputy, as his number two Saleh Al Aruri was killed in January in a strike in Lebanon blamed on Israel.

The first contender is Hamas political bureau member Musa Abu Marzuk, whose stances have been similar to Haniyeh’s.

More moderate than the armed branch of Hamas, he has advised the movement to accept a future Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders that followed Israel’s capture of Palestinian territories in the West Bank, including east Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip.

He has represented the Islamist movement in several rounds of indirect talks with Israel.

In the 1990s, he was arrested while living in the United States over allegedly facilitating funding for Hamas’ armed wing. He has since lived in Jordan, Egypt and Qatar.

The second possible contender is Khalil Al Haya, the political bureau’s number two in Gaza who is close to the armed wing’s chief Yahya Sinwar.

Haya briefly led Hamas lawmakers in parliament after it won an absolute majority in the chamber in 2006, before a fragile power-sharing arrangement with Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas’s Fatah movement ruptured and Hamas took over Gaza the following year.

He is a fervent defender of armed resistance against Israel, and lost several members of his family during an 2007 Israeli air strike.

Some observers also say Khaled Meshaal, the previous head of Hamas, could return to lead the movement.

What impact on Hamas?

An official within Hamas, who wished to remain anonymous, told AFP that Hamas would “overcome this crisis”.

Israel “has previously assassinated great leaders like the movement’s leader Sheikh Ahmad Yassin, and it only made Hamas stronger” said the source referring to the 2004 killing in Gaza.

Joost Hiltermann, Middle East programme director at the International Crisis Group, said “Hamas broadly speaking will not be affected, as it has plenty of leadership material”.

But Hugh Lovatt, a researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said it would be “a hugely traumatic event” for the movement.

Relatively speaking, inside the group, “Haniyeh has been a moderating force… His removal could embolden hardliners within the movement,” he said.

What of a Gaza ceasefire?

The latest Gaza war was sparked by Hamas attacks on Israel on October 7 that resulted in the deaths of 1,197 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Militants also seized 251 hostages, 111 of whom are still held captive in Gaza, including 39 the military says are dead.

Israel’s retaliatory campaign has killed at least 39,445 people in Gaza, according to the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry, which does not provide details on civilian and militant deaths.

Haniyeh’s killing could have an impact on flailing ceasefire talks to halt Israeli bombardment of Gaza and to see Israeli hostages freed.

“From what we gather, it is the political leadership based in Doha, headed by Haniyeh, that… has been pressing Sinwar… to accept a ceasefire,” Lovatt said.

While some have celebrated Haniyeh’s death on social media in Israel, many also fear a military escalation.

Palestinian analyst Mkhaimar Abusada said there could be reprisals against Israel “from the West Bank or Hamas groups in southern Lebanon”.

Palestinian political figures have saluted Haniyeh’s contribution to their struggle against Israeli occupation, but there has been concern about repercussions.

Towards a regional escalation?

The war in Gaza has drawn in Iran-backed actors across the region, including in clashes on the northern Israeli border with Lebanon.

Haniyeh’s killing in Tehran comes after Israel said it had killed a commander of the Lebanese Hezbollah militant group in Beirut on Tuesday that it blamed for a deadly weekend rocket strike on the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights.

His body was found Wednesday under the rubble of the building targeted in the attack.

After the strike that killed Haniyeh, Hamas’s armed wing threatened “enormous consequences” for the whole region.

Lina Khatib, of Chatham House, warned that, “every escalation increases the risk of things spiralling out of control”.

But analysts said it was not in Iran’s interest to throw itself into all-out war with Israel.

Hiltermann said Iran would “unleash its allies only when its vital interests have been harmed, and this is not the case”.