BEIRUT: With Iran-backed Hezbollah on the defensive after a series of heavy Israeli blows, the United States and Iran are locked in a showdown over Lebanon’s future, analysts said.
Hezbollah, the most powerful regional force backed by Iran, which arms and finances it, has long held sway in Lebanon.
But the group’s influence is now in question after Israel’s assassination of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in a significant setback.
Hezbollah’s losses have left Lebanon in a “tug of war between Iran and the United States”, said Michael Young of the Carnegie Middle East Center think tank.
“The Israelis with the Americans… are trying to use military force to try to transform the balance of power in Lebanon to their advantage,” he told AFP.
“There are no signs that the Iranians are going to accept this without a fight.”
Hezbollah is considered better armed than Lebanon’s national military and remains the only group that did not put down its weapons after the 1975-90 civil war.
Last year, it opened a new front with Israel over the conflict in Gaza, in support of its ally Hamas.
It carefully calibrated attacks to avoid a full-blown conflict, which eventually came on September 23 when Israel stepped up bombing of Hezbollah strongholds, including south Beirut.
The United States has pushed for ceasefire, but has also expressed support for Israeli attempts to “degrade Hezbollah’s infrastructure”.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said this month that “it’s clear that the people of Lebanon have an interest – a strong interest – in the state asserting itself and taking responsibility for the country and its future.”
‘War goals’
Kim Ghattas, the author of “Black Wave”, said: “Lebanon is caught between Iran and Hezbollah on the one hand, and Israel and the US on the other.”
But “Washington’s vision doesn’t necessarily align with Israel’s in terms of war goals and tactics”, she said.
“The US would certainly like to see a weakening of Hezbollah, maybe even the disarming of the group, but it is wary of Israel going too far with the military campaign.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Lebanon it could face destruction “like Gaza” as Israel vowed to keep fighting Hezbollah until it secures its northern border.
“I say to you, the people of Lebanon: Free your country from Hezbollah so that this war can end,” Netanyahu said on October 8.
Iran, for its part, “wants to preserve what’s left of its assets in Lebanon and ensure the survival of the regime”, Ghattas said, referring to the Islamic republic.
“It needs to walk a fine line between continuing to support Hezbollah… while signalling it is ready for diplomacy.”
Iran’s meddling drew a rare rebuke from Lebanon last week, as Prime Minister Najib Mikati accused it of “blatant interference” over remarks attributed to a Tehran official regarding ceasefire terms.
Mikati charged that Iran had attempted “to establish an unacceptable guardianship over Lebanon”, after Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf reportedly told France’s Le Figaro newspaper that his government was ready to negotiate on the implementation of a 2006 UN resolution that calls for only the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers to be deployed in southern Lebanon.
Elections
As the Israel-Hezbollah war nears its one-month mark, calls have mounted for Lebanon to elect a president after a two-year void due to political deadlock.
The last president, Michel Aoun, was a Hezbollah ally, making the vote a test for the country’s political trends.
In an interview with AFP, Mikati said serious efforts were underway to elect a president, in line with calls from the United States and other Western allies.
Political leaders in Lebanon too have made careful appeals for a new president, trying to avoid impressions they were leveraging Hezbollah’s setbacks for political gain.
“The Lebanese parties hostile to Hezbollah understand that the situation is very delicate,” said Young.
“They don’t want to provoke the Shiite community, which already feels humiliated and angry and isolated and let’s remember, is armed,” he added.
While suspicion between sects has grown since the Israeli-Hezbollah war forced displaced Shiite communities into Christian-majority areas, many are wary of a repeat of the country’s 15-year war.
The Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982 also recalls bitter memories for Lebanese and ultimately led to the creation of Hezbollah, one of Israel’s most formidable foes.
“It seems that politicians in Lebanon have learned lessons of the past, but the longer this current limbo and war lasts, the harder it will be to keep tensions under control,” said Ghattas.
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